Twelve Minutes Over Estonia, A Year In The Making
20-09-2025
Russia is probing NATO with deliberate airspace violations and drone spillover that already touched Poland and Romania, and most recently a twelve minute breach over Estonia. Tallinn has pulled Article 4 to force a coordinated response, because the next threshold is not confusion, it is harm on allied soil. Europe must harden the eastern sky, tighten air policing, protect undersea cables and civil air corridors, and publish clear red lines that move the alliance from consultation to action. Deterrence is not a press release. It is visible readiness, stocked magazines, rehearsed decision paths, and law that citizens understand and support.
Twelve minutes over Estonia, fragments in Poland and Romania. Article 4 today, clear triggers for Article 5 tomorrow. Europe must act like it means it.